2 Things I learned 1) every bubble ensues from widespread conviction. 2) important to look at risks two-sidedly. 00:01:24 every bubble ensues from widespread conviction. 00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:36,960 Everybody believes A. They bid the beneficiaries of A up to the moon. It turns out it's overdone. 00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:45,080 And people are now convinced AI will change the world. 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:53,480 I don't know if the future of AI is adequately reflected in the price of the beneficiaries or over reflected. _____ 00:00:09 because you think their earnings growth will be so rapid, you overweight them, and then it isn't. 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:23,380 So your large holdings suffer because they didn't live up to expectations. 00:00:23,380 --> 00:00:29,560 But it's really important to look at risks two-sidedly. 00:00:29,560 --> 00:00:40,720 So the corresponding risk is that you don't overweight them, and you don't have a market weight, 00:00:40 and then they perform earnings-wise as expected, and you're left behind. 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:52,580 So it's not just what will you do about the risk of a shortfall in anything. 00:00:52,580 --> 00:00:57,920 It's also what will you do about the corresponding risk that there is no shortfall.