Here’s a question: If you’re an investor who wants exposure to Elon Musk, is #SpaceX 🚀 or Tesla a better bet? #The Most Important Thing
Today, the answer seemed to be Tesla, with shares in the electric automaker climbing 1% to $405.05 as SpaceX shares tumbled 16% to $154.60. SpaceX shares are still above their IPO price of $135 per share, but today was their third consecutive trading day of decline.
Some of the drop might be typical post-IPO comedown. Plus, SpaceX just highlighted the money-hungry nature of its business by kicking off a big post-debut debt offering. Investors could also see Tesla as a cheaper way to get in on a future combined Musk empire, if you buy the idea—increasingly popular in some circles—that it could eventually merge with SpaceX.
Both companies benefit from gigantic Musk premiums that give them much higher multiples than peers in their respective industries, but SpaceX’s valuation is in a totally different orbit. SpaceX trades at more than 100 times its 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion, compared to Tesla’s roughly 14 times premium on $95 billion in revenue.
SpaceX bulls say they’re buying into Musk’s expansive vision for the company, comprised of data centers orbiting Earth and gigantic settlements on the moon and Mars. But it’s not like Musk’s vision for Tesla is any less messianic—late last year, he was promising that the company’s Optimus robot will “eliminate poverty,” make working “optional” and give every human “amazing medical care.”
Hype aside, there’s probably a limited time to take advantage of any arbitrage opportunity between SpaceX and Tesla. After all, Musk and other executives like SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell stoked speculation in the run-up to the IPO that the companies will eventually merge, and Musk already has a significant record of mushing his companies together really quickly. (Remember that at the beginning of 2025, SpaceX, xAI and X were all separate private companies.) SpaceX and Tesla also already share some employees and say they’re working together on projects like AI agents and chip fabs that should benefit both firms.
For investors looking to buy into a future Musk Inc., buying Tesla seems like the more promising route for now.
