Predicting Elections will be flooded with #Artificial Intelligence generated manipulation is obvious and already happening. My hopeful [2024 Prediction] is that it won’t matter. while AI may very well play a role in the 2024 election — perhaps a hack-and-leak operation kicked off by an AI-assisted spear-phishing campaign — phony videos of the candidates seem unlikely to have much effect on the outcome. With the media fact-checking them in real time, and (most) platforms restricting their reach, it’s hard to see how synthetic media can break through in any meaningful way. Fragmentation in social media will make it more difficult to understand which narratives are resonating most with voters. 2024 won’t be the TikTok election, or the Threads election, or the YouTube election, or the group chat election. It will be some amalgamation of all of them, along with Telegram, conservative talk radio, legacy media, and many other sources. While all of these bleed into each other, overall this looks to be the most fragmented media environment of any US national election in two decades. Following the story will take much more effort, and blind spots are likely to emerge. https://www.nytimes.com/2.. #The Most Important Thing