Recession 2024? Why yes and why not?

Seems like many people agree that we are more likely than not to enter a recession, and many financial indicators would suggest that as well. What are your predictions and why?

Recession 2024? Why yes and why not?  Seems like many people agree that we are more likely than not to enter a recession, and many financial indicators would suggest that as well. What are your predictions and why?

Jozhe

U.S. economy grew at 2.8% pace last quarter, powered by consumer spending. The American economy, the world's biggest, has shown surprising resilience in the face of sharply higher borrowing rates as the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in a bid to tame inflation. Despite widespread predictions that the economy would succumb to a recession, however, it has kept growing, with hiring and consumer spending holding steady. Employers are expected to have hired 120,000 workers in October, a slower pace than September's 254,000 new jobs.  

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-gdp-2024-third-quarter-consumer-spending/

U.S. economy grew at 2.8% pace last quarter, powered by consumer spending. The American economy, the world's biggest, has shown surprising resilience in the face of sharply higher borrowing rates as the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in a bid to tame inflation. Despite widespread predictions that the economy would succumb to a recession, however, it has kept growing, with hiring and consumer spending holding steady. Employers are expected to have hired 120,000 workers in October, a slower pace than September's 254,000 new jobs.    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-gdp-2024-third-quarter-consumer-spending/

Consumer confidence soared in October, signaling that Americans may continue to open their wallets.

U.S. economy grew at 2.8% pace last quarter, powered by consumer spending

Cyril

Key Fed inflation gauge at 2.2% in August, lower than expected. The personal consumption expenditures price index, a gauge the Fed focuses on to measure the cost of goods and services in the U.S. economy, rose 0.1% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.2%, down from 2.5% in July and the lowest since February 2021. The all-items inflation gauge was below Wall Street estimates and the lowest since early 2021.  

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/27/pce-inflation-august-2024.html

Key Fed inflation gauge at 2.2% in August, lower than expected. The personal consumption expenditures price index, a gauge the Fed focuses on to measure the cost of goods and services in the U.S. economy, rose 0.1% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.2%, down from 2.5% in July and the lowest since February 2021. The all-items inflation gauge was below Wall Street estimates and the lowest since early 2021.    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/27/pce-inflation-august-2024.html

The personal consumption expenditures price index was expected to increase 0.1% in August and 2.3% from a year ago.

Key Fed inflation gauge at 2.2% in August, lower than expected

The warning signs that there's economic pain on the horizon really are starting to pile up

https://medium.com/pure-dividends/are-you-buying-this-1-specific-food-sign-of-an-economic-crash-b185f2368b2f

The warning signs that there's economic pain on the horizon really are starting to pile up  https://medium.com/pure-dividends/are-you-buying-this-1-specific-food-sign-of-an-economic-crash-b185f2368b2f

Are you buying this 1 specific food? Sign of an economic crash

Bobby

After reading this summation of Japan's problems and the ripple effects (check out the #Data is beautiful inside), I think we are in the middle of it. The current rebound is just designed to help some to step out who did not do this in time 🙃

There will undoubtedly be a crash. Japan is a likely participant, though they're far from alone. The direct line to US investment is certainly relevant, but I think even that is a tiny fraction of the full picture. 

https://medium.com/limitless-investor/the-world-economy-is-about-to-be-wiped-out-by-a-black-swan-heres-how-you-can-prepare-9f899b8182a1#bypass

Data is beautiful

After reading this summation of Japan's problems and the ripple effects (check out the #Data is beautiful inside), I think we are in the middle of it. The current rebound is just designed to help some to step out who did not do this in time 🙃  There will undoubtedly be a crash. Japan is a likely participant, though they're far from alone. The direct line to US investment is certainly relevant, but I think even that is a tiny fraction of the full picture.   https://medium.com/limitless-investor/the-world-economy-is-about-to-be-wiped-out-by-a-black-swan-heres-how-you-can-prepare-9f899b8182a1#bypass

No One Sees This Coming — Actions You Can Take Right Now.

The World Economy is About to be Wiped Out by a Black Swan — Here’s How You Can Prepare

Jerome Cody

If you're going to buy and hold for 10+ years...getting in at a 5% or so discount seems attractive. Definitely could go lower. If you're not holding for that period of time...good luck as a day trader

Correction, not recession.  I'll be opportunistically shopping this dip.  💪🚀

Jozhe

A group of likeminded people in The Most Important Thing are talking about this.