Is this analysis accurate?  Made in 1875 by Samuel Benner shows periods of panic, good time to sell assets and good times to buy.

If you look at the top row it actually predicted great depression, WW2, dot com bubble and the COVID crash which we recently went through. Kind of mind blowing.

Currently we are in a period of hard times and lowering asset prices and therefore indicates a good time to buy assets soon?🚀🚀

Is this analysis accurate?  Made in 1875 by Samuel Benner shows periods of panic, good time to sell assets and good times to buy.  If you look at the top row it actually predicted great depression, WW2, dot com bubble and the COVID crash which we recently went through. Kind of mind blowing.  Currently we are in a period of hard times and lowering asset prices and therefore indicates a good time to buy assets soon?🚀🚀

Bobby

Perhaps we should discuss why we should believe a chart made by a farmer 100 years ago.

We believe there is a historic opportunity in the next year and a half, where a substantial amount of money can be made — possibly enough to support several generations.

Time will tell, but I truly say that we are facing a unique opportunity.


https://medium.com/asymmetric-finance/make-all-the-money-you-can-in-the-next-year-and-a-half-0e8cf55d1aa0

We believe there is a historic opportunity in the next year and a half, where a substantial amount of money can be made — possibly enough to support several generations.  Time will tell, but I truly say that we are facing a unique opportunity.   https://medium.com/asymmetric-finance/make-all-the-money-you-can-in-the-next-year-and-a-half-0e8cf55d1aa0

Make All the Money You Can in the Next Year and a Half

Cyril

I hope so, but I looked into this “prophecy” because I figured this was fake. The statements are past tense but the plot is showing the future, and the "signature" says 1875 but it begins in 1924 which makes 0 sense

First, he wasn't an economist but a farmer bankrupt by the 1873 crisis.

He tried to work out the causes of market fluctuations.

He came across a large degree of cyclicality and published it in his 1875 "BENNER PROPHECIES" which included an 11 years cycle in corn and pig prices, with peaks alternating every 5 to 6 years.

Cotton prices cycle peaked every 11 years.

A 27 years cycle in pig iron prices dropped every 11, 9, 7 years and peaked of the order of 8, 9, 10 years.

https://www.businessinsider.com/benner-cycle-2010-8?r=US&IR=T

Remember he was a farmer? So he took his prophecies from his knowledge : solar cycle, etc... he’s never predicted anything else and he’s never gone beyond 1904 so he’s never predicted 1929, WW2 or Covid.

If you look closely at the graph shown here, one can notice cycles in years 11-9-7 and 8-9-10 but the 27-year cycle is replaced by the 18's which coincides with the theory and will turn us all into a dithyrambic Sam's fan.

So it’s a fake.

Beyond those two things : there isn't enough old data in global economics to establish a coherent forecast.

No theory of economy takes into account the variability of human behaviour.

If politics had stood firm in 1938, would have Sam gotten it all wrong?

I hope so, but I looked into this “prophecy” because I figured this was fake. The statements are past tense but the plot is showing the future, and the "signature" says 1875 but it begins in 1924 which makes 0 sense  First, he wasn't an economist but a farmer bankrupt by the 1873 crisis.  He tried to work out the causes of market fluctuations.  He came across a large degree of cyclicality and published it in his 1875 "BENNER PROPHECIES" which included an 11 years cycle in corn and pig prices, with peaks alternating every 5 to 6 years.  Cotton prices cycle peaked every 11 years.  A 27 years cycle in pig iron prices dropped every 11, 9, 7 years and peaked of the order of 8, 9, 10 years.  https://www.businessinsider.com/benner-cycle-2010-8?r=US&IR=T  Remember he was a farmer? So he took his prophecies from his knowledge : solar cycle, etc... he’s never predicted anything else and he’s never gone beyond 1904 so he’s never predicted 1929, WW2 or Covid.  If you look closely at the graph shown here, one can notice cycles in years 11-9-7 and 8-9-10 but the 27-year cycle is replaced by the 18's which coincides with the theory and will turn us all into a dithyrambic Sam's fan.  So it’s a fake.  Beyond those two things : there isn't enough old data in global economics to establish a coherent forecast.  No theory of economy takes into account the variability of human behaviour.  If politics had stood firm in 1938, would have Sam gotten it all wrong?

The 56 Year Benner Cycle

Sam Mendoza

So what you are telling all of us, is that Benner predicted the pandemic 150 years ago? All this assumption means is that there are business cycles, which everyone knows. It's not magic--that we have recessions and expansion periods. It missed the financial crash in 2008, wars and macro economic conditions-- it isn't even close. Anyone can make 100 guesses and get one right--even a broken clock is correct twice a day.

Bobby

A group of likeminded people in The Most Important Thing are talking about this.