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The Most Important Thing
The Most Important Thing
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risk is largely a matter of opinion

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risk is largely a matter of opinion

The Most Important Thing

The Most Important Thing
The Most Important Thing
Lessons from Investment Gurus
Community Logo

risk is largely a matter of opinion

You are invited to join

risk is largely a matter of opinion

The Most Important Thing

The Most Important Thing
The Most Important Thing
Lessons from Investment Gurus
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risk is largely a matter of opinion

You are invited to join

risk is largely a matter of opinion

The Most Important Thing

The Social Community forThe Most Important Thing

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risk is largely a matter of opinion

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Successful investing requires thoughtful attention to many separate aspects, all at the same time. Omit any one and the result is likely to be less than satisfactory. The idea of the most important things—each is a brick in a solid wall, and none is dispensable.

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Sam Mendoza's profile picture on Select App
SM
Sam Mendoza
·6 months ago
shared a link post in group #The Most Important Thing
I'd wager Anthropic's founders would like nothing better than to steal OpenAI's thunder by being first to tap the public markets. Presuming the economy doesn't falter (and that is by no means certain)...
Anthropic Will Test The Markets First
johnbattelle.medium.com

Anthropic Will Test The Markets First

2026 Predictions, #9

Cy
Cyril commented · 2 days ago
Anthropic CFO Krishna Rao is holding preliminary investor meetings following a confidential IPO filing. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/13/anthropic-cfo-early-ipo-meetings-valuation.html?_bhlid=16f499025f35443b8679726542e72f631cfa42f4
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Jerome Cody's profile picture on Select App
JC
Jerome Cody
·2 years ago
shared a poll post in group #The Most Important Thing
One of these is coming off of a fresh and brutal beating (Google/Alphabet) and the other has recovered so far spectacularly from their own beating (Facebook/Meta). Which of these Ad Giants betting bi...
Cy
Cyril commented · 3 weeks ago
Maybe, just maybe, big tech firms need to do a better job of explaining their AI investment strategies. Shares of Google parent Alphabet fell 7% on Thursday after the company disclosed a further increase in capital expenditures this year—money it will spend on new AI chips, servers and data centers. The drop all but wiped out the gains the stock had enjoyed so far this year. Sure, the entire stock market sold off, presumably as a result of rising oil prices and the intensification of the Iran war. But Alphabet was among the worst hit, along with Tesla, which also reported sharply higher capex on Wednesday and whose shares fell 15% on Thursday. It’s tough to consider Tesla’s stock valuation on any kind of rational basis, given that it trades based more on its connection to Elon Musk than reality. But Alphabet is a different animal. There’s little doubt Google is among the best positioned of big tech companies in terms of its ability to take advantage of AI advances, given its strength in chips, AI models and consumer apps that should benefit from AI. But even for Alphabet, you have to wonder how much more money the company will have to spend to reach the promised land. Alphabet’s projected capex for this year—now as much as $205 billion—is more than double what it spent in 2025, which in turn was nearly three times what it was spending two years before that. Next year, Chief Financial Officer Anat Ashkenazi said on Wednesday, capex will “increase significantly” again! Dan Flax, an analyst at Neuberger Berman, said today that Alphabet’s capex “will likely be well over $300 billion.” For context, analysts expect the company to generate $259 billion in cash from operations next year, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. That suggests Alphabet could burn $40 billion in cash next year, which is quite a turnabout for a company that before this spending surge routinely generated $60 billion to $70 billion in free cash flow. And when will this end? Alphabet executives are vague about it. CEO Sundar Pichai keeps talking about the industry being in the “early innings” of the AI transition, which implies the heavy spending could go on for a while. Ashkenazi said on Wednesday that “our goal is to invest as long as we see an attractive return on that investment.” In other words, trust us. That may not be enough anymore.
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D J's profile picture on Select App
DJ
D J
·5 years ago
shared a media post in group #The Most Important Thing
Prediction - Cybersecurity funds are poised for explosive growth. Global spending on cybersecurity exceeded $150 billion in 2021 and will likely continue to be a high-growth industry. Investment in ...
JC
Jerome Cody commented · 6 hours ago
We’re seeing increasing threats from AI-enabled cyber offense — not basic stuff like stealing your dad’s Gmail password, but important stuff like sensitive information from governments. And the US government is responding with a policy idea more common in places like Russia and China: partnering with private enterprise to get to the attackers first. The concept hearkens back to sixteenth-century privateering, when governments would give ships “letters of marque” that allowed them to capture enemy vessels. But this time, instead of the roar of the high seas, privateers will be accompanied by the hum of their data centers’ water cooling systems. Like privateering, this endeavor could generate all sorts of problems: putting private citizens at risk of retaliation (https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/13/in-a-first-us-will-allow-some-private-firms-to-carry-out-cyberattacks/?ref=platformer.news) from foreign governments, the autonomous AI counterattackers getting out of control, etcetera.  But AI-enabled cyberattacks are an increasingly urgent issue for the US government. Given that private companies currently have the best AI resources available — and with AI now essential in modern hacking — some privateering may be necessary.
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Nate's profile picture on Select App
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Nate
·2 years ago
shared a link post in group #The Most Important Thing
Last year Palantir Technologies was the single best-performing stock in the S&P 500, rising 340%. The software company has been on a tear lately, too, in no small part because key backers like Peter T...
Analysts Split on Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR): Jefferies Sees 65% Downside, While Wedbush Remains Bullish on AI Growth
finance.yahoo.com

Analysts Split on Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR): Jefferies Sees 65% Downside, While Wedbush Remains Bullish on AI Growth

We recently compiled a list of the 10 Trending AI Stocks on Investors’ Radar. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:PLTR) stands against the other AI

Ta
Tasia commented · last week
Palantir just posted the quarter that breaks whatever mental model you still had about how B2B companies behave at scale. It already had re-accelerated at a rate we’ve never seen before. And then it just … did it again. https://cloud.substack.com/p/5-interesting-learnings-from-palantir-2c6?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=10969&post_id=209803655&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=6hfx4&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
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Jerome Cody's profile picture on Select App
JC
Jerome Cody
·6 months ago
shared a link post in group #The Most Important Thing
The Great SaaS Meltdown has started and there’s no going back… A new AI-oriented workflow is coming… the great SaaS meltdown has started. For most of the past two decades, enterprise software benefit...
$300 Billion Evaporated. The SaaS -Pocalypse Has Begun.
www.forbes.com

$300 Billion Evaporated. The SaaS -Pocalypse Has Begun.

AI didn’t kill software. It broke the SaaS growth story. $300B vanished as markets repriced legacy models and shifted toward agent-driven, outcome-based economics.

JC
Jerome Cody commented · 7 hours ago
In software land, it’s getting harder and harder to call out a singular vibe shift when the vibes keep shifting  every 24 hours.    On Thursday, when news broke that Silver Lake was in talks to acquire Workday, the human resource software company’s stock shot up 19%. Such a deal would be a big vote of confidence in a prominent software firm and, combined with a 55% appreciation in Workday’s shares since late June, a possible sign that the AI-driven SaaSpocalypse is ebbing.  But on Friday, the buzz seemed to have worn off. Workday’s shares sank almost 4%. The stocks of other software companies, which similarly spiked on Thursday following the Silverlake-Workday reports, also widely dropped.    Prepare for more mood swings in the coming weeks.  The next big data point comes in two weeks when Salesforce reports results. Analysts polled by Refinitiv expect revenue to rise more than 10% to $11 billion. But as with past quarters, most of the attention will be on growth from its AI products. Software stock analysts have been bracing for more pain. Karl Keirstead, head of AI and software equity research at UBS, says the executives of many blue chip companies he speaks with are “absolutely articulating a view that, given the performance improvements in these AI models and the ability to custom-build alternatives, they would like their spending with software company X, Y, Z to be down 30% over the next three years.” “I‘m in the camp that it’s going to be a rocky ride for the next 12 months,” he said in mid July. A takeover offer for Workday—whose shares are still down 7% this year—would show there’s a path for out-of-favor software companies. Generally, a company like WorkDay would be catnip for PE firms: While its stock has suffered, it throws off plenty of cash. (WorkDay generated $2.8 billion in free cash flow for its year ended in January.) These institutions have held off on acquisitions because they’re wrestling with private portfolios of software companies that are as under threat of AI as their publicly held peers. A WorkDay acquisition would also set a valuation multiple for other potential software buyouts. Notably, the Reuters report on Silverlake’s acquisition interest did not include an actual purchase price, leaving that multiple unknown. Still, shares are 13% higher than before the report emerged—indicating investors are betting this SaaS story has a happy ending. https://www.theinformation.com/titv/qtanb?utm_campaign=article_email&utm_content=article-17628&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sg&rc=gzsl71
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Todd Smith's profile picture on Select App
TS
Todd Smith
·3 years ago
shared a media post in group #The Most Important Thing
Should I cash out on Nvidia? I bought a lot of nvidia several years ago and currently have a thousand shares. My portfolio has multiplied In value several times. Seeing how nvidia is near its all time...
Na
Nate commented · 5 days ago
Nvidia released Nemotron 3.5 Lightning, an open mixture-of-experts model that it claims delivers substantially faster output. It comes alongside a router that assigns #Artificial Intelligence agents the best model for each task. #(Cool) Dev https://developer.nvidia.com/blog/nvidia-nemotron-3-5-lightning-delivers-fast-accurate-specialized-task-execution-for-long-running-agents/?_bhlid=06f1d3de8f734378330d8c6bb8d40390b2b499ad
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D J's profile picture on Select App
DJ
D J
·4 years ago
shared a link post in group #The Most Important Thing
pretty insane. i remember people were saying going below 5 would be impossible at industrial scale. 25% less power for 10-15% more performance in next year's iphones, probably desktop chips after th...
TSMC to Begin 3nm Chip Production Next Month
www.tomshardware.com

TSMC to Begin 3nm Chip Production Next Month

3nm chips from TSMC are getting closer.

Bo
Bobby commented · 2 weeks ago
TSMC is developing an advanced chip-packaging technology similar to what Intel offers, a sign that the Taiwanese giant is worried about Intel. https://www.theinformation.com/articles/tsmc-develops-ai-chip-packaging-tech-counter-intel?offer=rtsu-engagement-25%2Crtsu-featured-articles-pro&utm_campaign=RTSU%3A+TSMC+Develops&utm_content=14355&utm_medium=email&utm_source=cio&utm_term=9983
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Sam Mendoza's profile picture on Select App
SM
Sam Mendoza
·3 years ago
shared a poll post in group #The Most Important Thing
[2024 Group Prediction] Who’s leading the global EV race this year? In Q4 2023, BYD overtook Tesla as the world's largest electric car company, achieving record sales of 525,409 battery electric veh...
CH Michael Hu changed their vote · 4 days ago
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Sam Mendoza's profile picture on Select App
SM
Sam Mendoza
·2 years ago
shared a link post in group #The Most Important Thing
Waymo appears to be far far ahead anyone else in autonomous driving. They could really run errr drive away with this! Autonomous vehicle company Waymo, a subsidiary of Google parent Alphabet, anno...
Investing to bring the Waymo Driver to more riders
waymo.com

Investing to bring the Waymo Driver to more riders

Today, we’re excited to announce that we’ve closed an oversubscribed investment round of $5.6 billion, led by Alphabet, with continued participation from Andreessen Horowitz, Fidelity, Perry Creek, S

Cy
Cyril commented · 2 days ago
Uber and Pony.ai will deploy 2,000 robotaxis across Europe, expanding beyond Zagreb into four additional cities. #Auto Future https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/14/uber-and-pony-ai-plan-to-bring-2000-robotaxis-to-europe/?_bhlid=085a955586c4ade392916bddc8e073ff7cf9bc79
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Bobby's profile picture on Select App
Bo
Bobby
·last month
shared a link post in group #The Most Important Thingvia#The Most Important Thing
Hynix’s U.S. listing will make the stock easier to buy. That’s a big deal. As things stand now, only one of the three primary makers of memory chips—Micron Technology—is U.S. based (the third is anoth...
SK Hynix Is the Overlooked Memory Chip Maker
www.theinformation.com

SK Hynix Is the Overlooked Memory Chip Maker

The memory chip market right now is governed by a triumvirate of companies, led by South Korean firm SK Hynix, followed by Samsung, also of South Korea, and U.S. chipmaker Micron. The three stocks soared more than 200% over the last year—and yet they’re still cheap, especially relative to Nvidia ...

SM
Sam Mendoza commented · 4 weeks ago
The recent memory chip selloff offers investors a new opportunity to jump into the sector. Samsung is the best bet (https://www.theinformation.com/articles/samsung-new-memory-chip-underdog-now?offer=rtsu-engagement-25%2Crtsu-featured-articles-pro&cio_link_id=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__78ca81c10356e79c74244627892e95b58455d370dcff128d8b5b345ed5d6e7a7&utm_campaign=RTSU%3A+Samsung+Is+the&utm_content=14230&utm_medium=email&utm_source=cio&utm_term=9879).
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Tasia's profile picture on Select App
Ta
Tasia
·2 months ago
shared a link post in group #The Most Important Thing
The massive global data center buildout is causing parts shortages around the technology industry. This is perhaps most evident in today's memory prices, which are skyrocketing. So much so that consum...
Gadget prices have fallen for decades. Then AI happened.
www.cbsnews.com

Gadget prices have fallen for decades. Then AI happened.

The race to build AI data centers is leading to a global shortage of memory chips, driving up the cost of personal electronics.

TS
Todd Smith commented · 2 weeks ago
Apple expects choppy waters ahead for the quarter that ends in September, the company said on its June quarter earnings call. Apple’s Chief Financial Officer Kevan Parekh warned that supply constraints for advanced chip manufacturing will “increase significantly.” #Gadgets The company experienced such constraints during the June quarter for Macs, and to a lesser extent iPhones and iPads, due largely to a limited supply of its processing chips. Nvidia chips for artificial intelligence have been soaking up more and more of the chip making capacity of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Apple’s primary chip manufacturing partner. For the June quarter, Apple reported sales of $109.4 billion, up 16.4% from the prior year, and a net income of $29.8 billion, advancing 27% annually. The iPhone grew nearly 22% to $54.3 billion in sales. The company said it expects revenue to increase between 9% and 11% in the September quarter from the year earlier period, while it expects iPhone growth to slow to the mid-teens as supply constraints grow. Apple fell more than 7% in after-hours trading following the guidance announcement. While many stocks are getting hit hard this week over concerns with heavy AI spending, Apple has stood apart from the pack by limiting its capital expenditures on AI. The company’s stock was up 23% so far this year prior to its earnings announcement, outperforming most of its tech peers. On the call, CEO Tim Cook noted that he will soon hand off the top job at the company to John Ternus, its current hardware leader, who will replace Cook in September. “This will be my final earnings call, and John will lead these calls going forward,” Cook said. “The transition is going seamlessly, and I am beyond excited for John to step into his new role and lead Apple into its next era.” https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2026/07/apple-reports-third-quarter-results/?utm_campaign=%5BREBRAND%5D+%5BTI-AM%5D+Th&utm_content=1095&utm_medium=email&utm_source=cio&utm_term=124
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Jozhe's profile picture on Select App
Jo
Jozhe
·3 years ago
shared a link post in group #The Most Important Thing
This IPO might be interesting. They are targeting 90B$ valuation
China's Shein files for US IPO in major test for investor appetite -sources
www.reuters.com

China's Shein files for US IPO in major test for investor appetite -sources

Fashion company Shein has confidentially filed to go public in the United States, according to two sources familiar with the matter, in what is likely to be one of the most valuable China-founded comp

Na
Nate commented · 2 weeks ago
Online fashion retailer Shein received Chinese regulatory approval to list in Hong Kong, capping off the e-commerce platform’s tumultuous two-year quest to float its shares. The China Securities Regulatory Commission said in a statement on Friday that it had approved Shein’s application to sell not more than 341.6 million shares on the Hong Kong stock exchange. The approval is valid for 12 months. If Shein doesn’t list in 12 months, it must submit an updated application. Before the bid to list in Hong Kong, China-founded Shein first sought to go public in New York in 2024,  then London. Both attempts failed amid mounting controversies over the company’s labor practices, allegations of copyright infringement and other thorny issues. https://www.reuters.com/world/shein-wins-china-approval-ipo-hong-kong-2026-07-10/
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The Most Important Thing

risk is largely a matter of opinion