shared a poll post in group #The Most Important Thing
How many rate cuts in 2024? 1, 2, or 3?
https://finance.yahoo.com..
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Cyril
The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at a range of 3.5% to 3.75% at its January meeting, as all eyes turn to the next Fed meeting in March. Markets* are pricing in a 91% chance the Fed maintains the rate again and a 9% chance of a 25-basis point cut.
sherwood.news/markets/fed..
sherwood.news
Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged; Waller joins Miran in dissenting in favor of rate cut
The US central bank held its policy rate steady at its January meeting....
Todd Smith
Event contracts* showed the odds of a Fed rate cut in June jumping to around 50% in the minutes following the release of jobs data (nonfarm payrolls growth was -92,000 on an estimate of +55,000) on Friday, from about 30% beforehand.
robinhood.com/us/en/predi..
robinhood.com
https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/economics/events/fed-decision-in-jun-2026-nov-11-2025/?utm_source=snacks&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=snacks_20260309&utm_content=f024040d55e83b9102d3fce76244ea61
Predict the Federal Open Market Committee decisions to change (or not change) the target federal funds rate range at the meeting originally scheduled On Jun 17, 2026. If the outcome you select is true
Bobby
A war in the Middle East, and the resultant upward pressure on oil prices, has caused traders to reverse bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the first half of this year. The prediction market-implied odds* of a rate cut in June are less than 38%. Last week, the odds of a rate cut in June were around 60%. #Topic of War
sherwood.news/markets/ene..
sherwood.news
Energy price spike on Mideast war has traders betting on no Fed cuts through June
Prediction markets indicate a lower tolerance for looking through higher energy prices....
Tasia
In an incredibly brief statement, the Federal Reserve voted to keep rates unchanged at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, as was universally expected.
The release eliminated any hints as to the future for policy rates. Its April statement included the phrase “in considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target rate,” which was a nod to the idea that another cut was more likely than a shift towards hikes.
At that time, three monetary policymakers dissented, preferring that this easing bias be removed. Today’s unanimous vote suggests that members are aligned on this matter, given the renewed strength in labor market data since May and the stickiness of inflation.
Of course, hints on the outlook for short-term rates can still be divined through the dot plot, and that came out on the hawkish side.
The median Fed official thinks the policy rate should be at 3.75% if the economy evolves in line with their expectations, which implies a hike is seen as more likely than a cut. Wall Street had anticipated that the 2026 dot would rise to only 3.625% from 3.375%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq sold off following the statement and projections; Treasury yields rose. Stocks pared some of their losses during new Chairman Kevin Warsh’s press conference.
Warsh has often suggested that the central bank over-communicates with markets, and his proclivity for brevity is reflected in today’s press release. During the press conference, he positioned himself as a reformer, outlining different task forces he’s establishing in an attempt to improve the conduct of monetary policy and economic outcomes.
Prediction markets now see a hike in July as more likely than a cut, a reversal of what was priced in ahead of this event. They also price in a greater risk of an interest rate hike before the year is out, with those odds rising to about 60% from roughly 40%
sherwood.news/markets/fed..
sherwood.news
Federal Reserve removes easing bias, policymakers see a hike as more likely than a cut this year
The knee-jerk move for stocks was to the downside....
Sam Mendoza
Put aside, for just a moment, all the arguments about AI safety. Today’s decision by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates may be a bigger issue for the AI sector in the short term. Long-term bond yields had already risen, of course. But the Fed’s action—pushing up short- and medium-term borrowing costs—seems sure to crimp the debt-fueled AI boom, particularly given the prospects that another rate hike is possible later in the year. #The Most Important Thing
The most vulnerable to higher rates are surely small companies that have weak or no credit ratings but need to raise money, such as would-be neoclouds hoping to finance data center projects. Think Rum Group, which plans a big data center in Georgia for a deal with Anthropic but doesn’t have financing for the project yet. (For more on startups’ financing challenges, see here). But the ripple effects of higher interest rates will eventually affect everyone, including big tech firms spending a fortune to expand their data centers for AI.
Most of these—Amazon, Meta Platforms and Google—have already loaded up on debt, giving themselves a bit of a buffer. Just on Monday, Amazon sold 4.2 billion pounds of debt (about $5.7 billion), adding to the $67 billion raised in the first half of the year that had already nearly doubled its debt. Most of the bonds sold this year were fixed-rate debt, according to Amazon’s securities filings, which means Amazon won’t pay more in interest costs as rates rise. Google and Meta also issued debt to varying degrees. Still, at the rate these companies are spending, they’ll have to borrow more money again before too long.
Amazon’s borrowings, for instance, offset heavy capital expenditures and investments in both Anthropic and OpenAI, keeping its cash level flat at June 30, at $123 billion from where it was at Dec. 31. But since June 30, Amazon has poured another $21 billion into OpenAI, completing its $50 billion commitment. Analysts estimate Amazon will burn $10 billion in the second half, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, and another $43 billion in the first half of 2027.
To be sure, these big tech companies are highly rated by credit agencies and will still be able to raise at better terms than smaller firms. But the ramifications of the Fed’s action can’t be understated. The cost of money just went up. The AI picture just got fuzzier.
nytimes.com/2026/09/16/bu..
www.nytimes.com
Fed Signals Another Rate Increase Could Be Coming
Here’s how to read the Federal Reserve’s economic projections like a pro.
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