If 2023 was the year of GPT-4, 2024 will be the year of GLP-1. [2024 Prediction] GLP-1 > GPT 4. That is, Ozempic, Mounjaro, and all GLP-1-related weight loss technology. The market is massive and ripe for disruption. More than 70% of our nation is obese or overweight. The prevalence of obesity has tripled in the past 50 years, and the cost of obesity in the U.S. — including indirect costs and productivity losses — is estimated to be $1.7 trillion. Semaglutide will be followed by similar GLP-1 drugs, including retatrutide and tirzepatide, both in trials from Eli Lilly. Studies with overweight patients show weight loss of 15% to 24% of body weight. Both Wegovy and Ozempic are weekly injectables, which discourages some people, but now there’s a pill version, Rybelsus. Whatever the label on the box, GLP-1 drugs make us feel fuller for longer and suppress hunger cravings. In sum: the most effective weight loss drugs to-date. As investment in GLP-1s increases, their cost will come down and access will expand. This will have a ripple effect beyond pharma — fast food companies, including McDonald’s and Pepsi, will be affected as consumers reduce consumption. The biggest query for the consumer economy: What would America look like if it were thinner and less diabetic? The obesity economy is the iceberg below the surface of our $23 trillion consumer economy, and GLP-1 is the latest taste to inspire salivation across Wall Street’s greed glands: Traders have been shorting restaurant stocks, putting nearly $1 billion on the Do Not Pass line in just the last month. One analyst told CNBC that the revenue hit to the restaurant business could be $25 billion by 2025. The evidence? Morgan Stanley surveyed 300 Ozempic users, and 77% of them said they visit fast-food restaurants less often now that they’re on the drug. Walmart is already seeing a decline in food purchases among people taking GLP-1 medications. These effects likely aren’t yet visible in firms’ EPS as these drugs are limited in supply and a fraction of overweight people are taking them … so far. However, the stock market is a mechanism for trying to see around the corner, and the decline in share values across the obesity industrial complex will front-run the impact. Fast food gets hit first, but fast casual is also under threat. Look for snack foods, frozen meals, candy, soda, and baked goods to all take a hit. Among GLP-1 users, 58% report they ate four or more snacks per day before taking the drug, and 90% say snacking decreased while they were on it. In any category, profits are driven by a minority of customers. And these products’ best customers are becoming Novo Nordisk’s newest. Food sales are an obvious target, but the effects of lower obesity rates will inspire other aftershocks, some greater in magnitude than that felt at the food epicenter. One interesting knock-on effect: it’s estimated that United Airlines would save $80 million a year in fuel costs if its customers lost an average of 10 pounds. Sports and fitness will be restructured: Gyms, built on a consumer base trying to lose weight, will see lower revenue, whereas sports for which fitness is a prerequisite (skiing, mountain biking, climbing) stand to benefit. Apparel likely sees a short-term bump, as people splurge on clothes to fit their remodeled bodies, but the longer-term outlook is harder to predict: Less yo-yo dieting means some people won’t need separate wardrobes to accommodate different selves, but formerly overweight people spending less money on food might allocate that cash to clothing. Where else could that extra food budget go? Discretionary spending increases will spread through every non-caloric category. Could this help reverse trends around loneliness and declining birth-rates as people feel better about themselves and are increasingly ready to mingle? If that’s all these drugs did, they’d still be a first-ballot hall of fame medical breakthrough. But this may be just the beginning. It’s possible GLP-1 drugs are not weight loss drugs, but anti-craving drugs….