In the past 50 years, every time oil prices, adjusted for inflation, rose 50% above trend, a recession followed…. 

https://mostimportant.select.id/post/rwvm

New GDP data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. economy has officially entered a recession with its second straight quarter of contraction. 

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The Most Important Thing

Sam Mendoza

The bond-market yield curve has inverted, signaling markets are more optimistic about short-term investments than long-term ones. The inversion has preceded every US recession for decades.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/21/business/yield-curve-inversion.html

The bond-market yield curve has inverted, signaling markets are more optimistic about short-term investments than long-term ones. The inversion has preceded every US recession for decades.  https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/21/business/yield-curve-inversion.html

Investors, on the other hand, have become increasingly fearful that the central bank will go too far, slowing the economy to such an extent that it sets off a severe downturn. This worry is reflected 

A Recession Alarm Is Ringing on Wall Street

https://medium.datadriveninvestor.com/sell-when-the-yield-curve-inverts-here-is-my-data-driven-answer-2a94de4597ca

Sell When The Yield Curve Inverts? Here Is My Data-Driven Answer

The paradox of recession-omics... By most metrics, the US economy is booming: unemployment is back to pre-pandemic levels; salaries are rising at their fastest clip in decades; and consumers are splurging on spring fits and summer vacays. And yet… some economists are bracing for a downturn. Their reasoning: the Fed can’t cool the worst inflation in 40 years without also slamming the brakes on growth. Last week Deutsche Bank was the first on Wall Street to predict a recession, followed by Bank of America warning of a “recession shock.”

How did it play out for you?  Net 📈?📉?

I gave up on my short inverse ETFs after this two week rally. Wasn’t ballsy enough

D J

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