Oil Prices and Recession Predictors

The paradox of recession-omics... By most metrics, the US economy is booming: unemployment is back to pre-pandemic levels; salaries are rising at their fastest clip in decades; and consumers are splurging on spring fits and summer vacays. And yet… some economists are bracing for a downturn. Their reasoning: the Fed can’t cool the worst inflation in 40 years without also slamming the brakes on growth. Last week Deutsche Bank was the first on Wall Street to predict a recession, followed by Bank of America warning of a “recession shock.”

The bond-market yield curve has inverted, signaling markets are more optimistic about short-term investments than long-term ones. The inversion has preceded every US recession for decades. nytimes.com/2022/07/21/bu..