China Economic Outlook and Emerging Market Investment

The Most Important Thing

risk is largely a matter of opinion

D J

·5 years ago

shared a link post in group #The Most Important Thing

expect much more of this to happen unless they devalue CNY @GetSelect #The Most Important Thing @RobinBrooksIIF @econchart

mostimportant.select.id

Robin Brooks

Something big is happening in global capital flows. China (pink) is seeing big capital outflows, while the rest of EM gets inflows. Never happened before on this scale and reflects asset managers looking at China in a new light after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. With @econchart

Nate
There’s also this....almost unbelievably...
Their economy has grown 40 fold in that window. If you want to bet you’ll do better as a shareholder with less Chinese growth and potentially more conflict / global isolation… good luck to you.

Sam Mendoza
Soon to be 50% of the index? Or is China uninvestable? And are there better opportunities elsewhere in EM?

Sam Mendoza
China, Brazil, India, etc. It looks like...
Right. China now see the west responding hard to the invasion of Ukraine and the oligarchs assets being seized tells them to be their money out before the invasion of Taiwan causes the same action against the wealthy in China. So outflow is normal…

Jerome Cody
Soon to be 50% of the index? Or is Chin...
no, it's not a value play & it's gonna get worse. Heading towards 50% China allocation in MSCI EM.

Nate
But serious question - does China looks differently due to 1) implicit complicity in invasion of UKR; or 2) location of the world's arguably worst Covid19 outbreak right now (HK + soon mainland?); or 3) both?

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China Economic Outlook and Emerging Market Investment

D J

Robin Brooks

NateThere’s also this....almost unbelievably...Their economy has grown 40 fold in that window. If you want to bet you’ll do better as a shareholder with less Chinese growth and potentially more conflict / global isolation… good luck to you.

Sam MendozaSoon to be 50% of the index? Or is China uninvestable? And are there better opportunities elsewhere in EM?

Jerome CodySoon to be 50% of the index? Or is Chin...no, it's not a value play & it's gonna get worse. Heading towards 50% China allocation in MSCI EM.

NateBut serious question - does China looks differently due to 1) implicit complicity in invasion of UKR; or 2) location of the world's arguably worst Covid19 outbreak right now (HK + soon mainland?); or 3) both?

Nate
There’s also this....almost unbelievably...
Their economy has grown 40 fold in that window. If you want to bet you’ll do better as a shareholder with less Chinese growth and potentially more conflict / global isolation… good luck to you.

Sam Mendoza
Soon to be 50% of the index? Or is China uninvestable? And are there better opportunities elsewhere in EM?

Jerome Cody
Soon to be 50% of the index? Or is Chin...
no, it's not a value play & it's gonna get worse. Heading towards 50% China allocation in MSCI EM.

Nate
But serious question - does China looks differently due to 1) implicit complicity in invasion of UKR; or 2) location of the world's arguably worst Covid19 outbreak right now (HK + soon mainland?); or 3) both?