One of these is coming off of a fresh and brutal beating (Google/Alphabet) and the other has recovered so far spectacularly from their own beating (Facebook/Meta).  Which of these Ad Giants betting big on #Artificial Intelligence  stock does better this year?   
[Group Prediction 2024]

Is Google oversold?  Can they come back with a vengeance too?  Can Meta keep it going? 

Artificial Intelligence

One of these is coming off of a fresh and brutal beating (Google/Alphabet) and the other has recovered so far spectacularly from their own beating (Facebook/Meta).  Which of these Ad Giants betting big on #Artificial Intelligence  stock does better this year?    [Group Prediction 2024]  Is Google oversold?  Can they come back with a vengeance too?  Can Meta keep it going?

Jerome Cody

Facebook’s took a right turn but did it help their cause? We all know deep down that Facebook is not the cultural hub it once was, but it still boasts 3 billion monthly users who share vacation photos, post AI slop, and, though it’s not at the volume it once was, engage with news content. The New York Times became the platform’s most popular news source in November, but over the last four months, right-wing news sites — ranging from Fox News to Breitbart — have come roaring back. So much so that it’s worth asking not just why, but how?

There may be two larger trends also happening with Facebook right now.

First: it’s possible that Facebook, even with its 3 billion users, about 250 million of which are American, is simply not the mirror of the zeitgeist it once was. The users that are still active on there and actually share content are older, more conservative, and now excitedly flooding their feeds with Fox News content at a rate other platforms don’t see.

But second, it’s also worth asking exactly how organic a shift this was, especially considering Meta’s $1 million donation to President Trump’s campaign and the fact that in January the company added Trump’s close friend, UFC head Dana White, to its board.

This brings us to a question that has hung over Facebook since its inception: are the popular posts that show up on your feed actually popular, or are they popular because they’re put in a favorable position to show up on your feed?

https://sherwood.news/tech/facebooks-news-feed-takes-a-right-turn/?utm_source=snacks&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=snacks_20250407&utm_content=b3f5fccd7114b2f9d7fcd459bcce98b7

Meta donated $1 million to Trump's inaugural fund as part of its ongoing effort to keep Mark Zuckerberg out of prison. 

https://www.wsj.com/tech/mark-zuckerbergs-meta-donates-1-million-to-trumps-inaugural-fund-32a999c1?st=xXV2gV&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink&ref=platformer.news

Meta donated $1 million to Trump's inaugural fund as part of its ongoing effort to keep Mark Zuckerberg out of prison.   https://www.wsj.com/tech/mark-zuckerbergs-meta-donates-1-million-to-trumps-inaugural-fund-32a999c1?st=xXV2gV&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink&ref=platformer.news

The president-elect had blasted the tech tycoon during the presidential campaign, but ties have been improving.

Exclusive | Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta Donates $1 Million to Trump’s Inaugural Fund

Tasia

Facebook’s took a right turn but did it help their cause? We all know deep down that Facebook is not the cultural hub it once was, but it still boasts 3 billion monthly users who share vacation photos, post AI slop, and, though it’s not at the volume it once was, engage with news content. The New York Times became the platform’s most popular news source in November, but over the last four months, right-wing news sites — ranging from Fox News to Breitbart — have come roaring back. So much so that it’s worth asking not just why, but how?  There may be two larger trends also happening with Facebook right now.  First: it’s possible that Facebook, even with its 3 billion users, about 250 million of which are American, is simply not the mirror of the zeitgeist it once was. The users that are still active on there and actually share content are older, more conservative, and now excitedly flooding their feeds with Fox News content at a rate other platforms don’t see.  But second, it’s also worth asking exactly how organic a shift this was, especially considering Meta’s $1 million donation to President Trump’s campaign and the fact that in January the company added Trump’s close friend, UFC head Dana White, to its board.  This brings us to a question that has hung over Facebook since its inception: are the popular posts that show up on your feed actually popular, or are they popular because they’re put in a favorable position to show up on your feed?  https://sherwood.news/tech/facebooks-news-feed-takes-a-right-turn/?utm_source=snacks&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=snacks_20250407&utm_content=b3f5fccd7114b2f9d7fcd459bcce98b7

Meta’s social platform keeps shifting what users see in their feed, but data shows an interesting postelection tilt....

Facebook’s news feed takes a right turn

One thing that has come through loud and clear in the testimony is that the popularity of Meta’s apps, particularly Facebook and Instagram, has suffered from competition posed by TikTok in particular, as well as other apps.

For instance, Zuckerberg said Meta apps’ share of the time people spend on social media had “gone down meaningfully,” as the interaction people have with friends has shifted to messaging apps. This isn’t the sort of thing Zuckerberg has said on earnings calls.

It may not be a coincidence that Meta’s stock, which has outperformed most other big tech stocks in recent months, has traded badly in the past few days. Since April 9, Meta shares are down 14%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index has fallen just 4.8%.

One thing that has come through loud and clear in the testimony is that the popularity of Meta’s apps, particularly Facebook and Instagram, has suffered from competition posed by TikTok in particular, as well as other apps.  For instance, Zuckerberg said Meta apps’ share of the time people spend on social media had “gone down meaningfully,” as the interaction people have with friends has shifted to messaging apps. This isn’t the sort of thing Zuckerberg has said on earnings calls.  It may not be a coincidence that Meta’s stock, which has outperformed most other big tech stocks in recent months, has traded badly in the past few days. Since April 9, Meta shares are down 14%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index has fallen just 4.8%.

Jimmy Wu

Antitrust trials and tech businesses don’t mix well. As was the case with the government’s ad tech case against Google last year, as well as its case against Meta Platforms, which went to trial in a Washington courtroom today, the lawsuits typically rest on years-old snapshots that are losing relevance fast.

Thus we have a Federal Trade Commission case against Meta’s dominance of social media that rests on its acquisition of Instagram and WhatsApp more than a dozen years ago. Leave aside the obvious point that when Meta did those deals, Instagram in particular was not the juggernaut it is today. There is the salient point that in the past decade, TikTok has become such a force in social media that President Donald Trump is pulling out all the stops to keep it alive—despite a law passed last year that would ban it if it stays under China’s control—because he believes it helped him win reelection. 

The government’s case is carefully designed to skirt the issue of TikTok’s impact on the market. To be specific, the FTC defines the market for “personal social networking” as excluding TikTok, Pinterest, Twitter (now X), Reddit, LinkedIn and Nextdoor, and includes only Snap as a rival to Meta’s Facebook and Instagram. In other words, the social media market excludes nearly all social media firms. Good one! 

It was a similar story when the government sued Google over its dominance of ad buying and selling on independent websites. That case focused on Google’s role in older parts of the internet, such as newspaper sites, instead of newer parts of the market like video-streaming services. The case is coming five or six years too late to save the publishers it is meant to help. As for video streaming, whose share of digital advertising is growing, Google’s ad technology isn’t as good as that of rivals, we noted in this story in January. 

Even the government’s antitrust case against Google’s search business, which the government won, is out of date. Google’s giant search operation is now under threat from artificial intelligence chatbots like ChatGPT.

As is often the case, big companies very often lose whatever lead they enjoy in a market through their own fumbles or through technological change. That can be a more efficient way to solve competition problems than lawsuits.

Antitrust trials and tech businesses don’t mix well. As was the case with the government’s ad tech case against Google last year, as well as its case against Meta Platforms, which went to trial in a Washington courtroom today, the lawsuits typically rest on years-old snapshots that are losing relevance fast.  Thus we have a Federal Trade Commission case against Meta’s dominance of social media that rests on its acquisition of Instagram and WhatsApp more than a dozen years ago. Leave aside the obvious point that when Meta did those deals, Instagram in particular was not the juggernaut it is today. There is the salient point that in the past decade, TikTok has become such a force in social media that President Donald Trump is pulling out all the stops to keep it alive—despite a law passed last year that would ban it if it stays under China’s control—because he believes it helped him win reelection.   The government’s case is carefully designed to skirt the issue of TikTok’s impact on the market. To be specific, the FTC defines the market for “personal social networking” as excluding TikTok, Pinterest, Twitter (now X), Reddit, LinkedIn and Nextdoor, and includes only Snap as a rival to Meta’s Facebook and Instagram. In other words, the social media market excludes nearly all social media firms. Good one!   It was a similar story when the government sued Google over its dominance of ad buying and selling on independent websites. That case focused on Google’s role in older parts of the internet, such as newspaper sites, instead of newer parts of the market like video-streaming services. The case is coming five or six years too late to save the publishers it is meant to help. As for video streaming, whose share of digital advertising is growing, Google’s ad technology isn’t as good as that of rivals, we noted in this story in January.   Even the government’s antitrust case against Google’s search business, which the government won, is out of date. Google’s giant search operation is now under threat from artificial intelligence chatbots like ChatGPT.  As is often the case, big companies very often lose whatever lead they enjoy in a market through their own fumbles or through technological change. That can be a more efficient way to solve competition problems than lawsuits.

A global trade war could get very ugly for big tech—and not just for importers of physical products, like Apple. If the EU retaliates against U.S. tariffs by imposing a levy on digital ad revenues....even for a European regulator, that idea is nuts! And it should worry all tech investors.

Tariffs are designed to protect local industry from cheap imports. Meta and Google are most definitely not flooding Europe’s digital ad market with cheap ad space. If anything, it’s the opposite: Advertisers complain that buying space on the big platforms is too expensive. If a homegrown ad platform appeared, it would have no problems competing on price. But advertisers prefer to spend money on the U.S. platforms because they’re the most effective outlets for driving sales.

Taxing U.S. tech companies’ European ad revenues would be sure to spark further retaliatory moves from the Trump administration (it’s already imposing tariffs of 145% on China in response to that country’s retaliation). While there’s a good chance sanity would prevail in the end, that could take a while. In the meantime, the situation could really squeeze companies like Meta and Google. Europe accounted for 23% of Meta’s 2024 revenue, while the Europe, Middle East, Africa region generated 29% of Google parent Alphabet’s revenue. In other words, Europe is a hugely important region for these companies.

Until now, the tech companies seen as most directly vulnerable to tariffs have been Apple, Tesla and the chipmakers. Von der Leyen’s statements suggest companies that sell advertising, and other services, can’t relax.

Europe Threatens to Tax Meta and Google Ad Revenues
The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said Europe could tax digital ad revenues of Meta Platforms and Google in retaliation for tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Europe.
Von der Leyen was speaking in an interview with the Financial Times. She said the European Commission was “developing retaliatory measures” in case negotiations between the U.S. and Europe did not succeed.
Europe accounted for 23% of Meta’s 2024 revenues and 29% of Google parent Alphabet’s revenues

https://www.ft.com/content/fba18bd9-46f9-4736-89f3-976afe3abf7a?utm_campaign=%5BREBRAND%5D+%5BTI-AM%5D+Th&utm_content=1095&utm_medium=email&utm_source=cio&utm_term=124

Europe Threatens to Tax Meta and Google Ad Revenues The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said Europe could tax digital ad revenues of Meta Platforms and Google in retaliation for tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Europe. Von der Leyen was speaking in an interview with the Financial Times. She said the European Commission was “developing retaliatory measures” in case negotiations between the U.S. and Europe did not succeed. Europe accounted for 23% of Meta’s 2024 revenues and 29% of Google parent Alphabet’s revenues  https://www.ft.com/content/fba18bd9-46f9-4736-89f3-976afe3abf7a?utm_campaign=%5BREBRAND%5D+%5BTI-AM%5D+Th&utm_content=1095&utm_medium=email&utm_source=cio&utm_term=124

European Commission president tells FT she wants ‘balanced’ deal but could hit US services in retaliation

EU could tax Big Tech if Trump trade talks fail, says von der Leyen

Bobby

A global trade war could get very ugly for big tech—and not just for importers of physical products, like Apple. If the EU retaliates against U.S. tariffs by imposing a levy on digital ad revenues....even for a European regulator, that idea is nuts! And it should worry all tech investors.  Tariffs are designed to protect local industry from cheap imports. Meta and Google are most definitely not flooding Europe’s digital ad market with cheap ad space. If anything, it’s the opposite: Advertisers complain that buying space on the big platforms is too expensive. If a homegrown ad platform appeared, it would have no problems competing on price. But advertisers prefer to spend money on the U.S. platforms because they’re the most effective outlets for driving sales.  Taxing U.S. tech companies’ European ad revenues would be sure to spark further retaliatory moves from the Trump administration (it’s already imposing tariffs of 145% on China in response to that country’s retaliation). While there’s a good chance sanity would prevail in the end, that could take a while. In the meantime, the situation could really squeeze companies like Meta and Google. Europe accounted for 23% of Meta’s 2024 revenue, while the Europe, Middle East, Africa region generated 29% of Google parent Alphabet’s revenue. In other words, Europe is a hugely important region for these companies.  Until now, the tech companies seen as most directly vulnerable to tariffs have been Apple, Tesla and the chipmakers. Von der Leyen’s statements suggest companies that sell advertising, and other services, can’t relax.

Jerome Cody

A group of likeminded people in The Most Important Thing are talking about this.