Drought related disruptions on Europes waterway the Rhine may knock half a percentage point off Germany’s growth this year. I’m wondering how it will impact the stock market. 



Chris Nheu

On Friday, EU countries agreed to cap the price of Russian crude at $60/barrel. The cap sets a max purchasing price on Russian oil to hurt the Kremlin’s income, which is fueling its war on Ukraine. As of today, the EU will also ban seaborne imports of Russian oil (though pipelines will keep flowing). The cap might not be very effective, though, since China and India, the biggest buyers of Russian oil, don’t seem inclined to support it. Meanwhile, Russia has said it won’t sell oil to countries who implement a cap. That could exacerbate the winter energy crunch.

Sam Mendoza

David

Will the efficacy of sanctions increase over time?  Are there still more options in the sanction arsenal?  

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/01/ukraine-russia-sanctions-economy-war-putin-embargo-technology-financial-energy/?fbclid=IwAR3VIoLHB4MQUUNiobrruK4NaJ59jFzNq6f5YTeNznnu3TTbxfzi6FbpGvg

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ScholER

Turns out I was entirely wrong? 

https://ssaurel.medium.com/winter-is-coming-in-europe-and-there-is-too-much-gas-18990518e0e7

It’s going to be a cold winter.... It’s going to be a cold winter....

Jerome Cody

Turns out I was entirely wrong?   https://ssaurel.medium.com/winter-is-coming-in-europe-and-there-is-too-much-gas-18990518e0e7

The basic laws of the market take over from time to time.

Winter Is Coming in Europe, and There Is Too Much Gas.

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Will the efficacy of sanctions increase over time?  Are there still more options in the sanction arsenal?    https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/01/ukraine-russia-sanctions-economy-war-putin-embargo-technology-financial-energy/?fbclid=IwAR3VIoLHB4MQUUNiobrruK4NaJ59jFzNq6f5YTeNznnu3TTbxfzi6FbpGvg  #ScholER

The Kremlin’s ability to wage war is already constrained, but the worst is yet to come.

Sanctions on Russia Are Working. Here’s Why.

🫣
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62732835

German year-ahead electricity rose as much as 11% to 530.50 euros a megawatt-hour on the European Energy Exchange AG. That marks a gain of over 500% in the past year, driven predominantly by Russia’s moves to slash gas supply. 

And even before this crisis, German energy was about 3 times as expensive as in China for example. Making production industry totally uncompetitive. Expecting a lot of factories to close down or move their production in the coming year if things don’t change.

Also it can trigger a political crisis in Europe. EU has a shared energy market, but there are a bunch of countries with little to no dependency on the Russian oil and gas. Yet they are paying as high energy bills as others, because of how marginal cost for commodities works

https://www.ft.com/content/8a9662ef-1ff9-4edf-b0cf-1abb377d08a5

German year-ahead electricity rose as much as 11% to 530.50 euros a megawatt-hour on the European Energy Exchange AG. That marks a gain of over 500% in the past year, driven predominantly by Russia’s moves to slash gas supply.   And even before this crisis, German energy was about 3 times as expensive as in China for example. Making production industry totally uncompetitive. Expecting a lot of factories to close down or move their production in the coming year if things don’t change.  Also it can trigger a political crisis in Europe. EU has a shared energy market, but there are a bunch of countries with little to no dependency on the Russian oil and gas. Yet they are paying as high energy bills as others, because of how marginal cost for commodities works  https://www.ft.com/content/8a9662ef-1ff9-4edf-b0cf-1abb377d08a5

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🫣 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62732835

European countries dismiss claims the pipeline needs repairs, saying the move is linked to Ukraine.

Chris Nheu

Drought related disruptions on Europes waterway the Rhine may knock half a percentage point off Germany’s growth this year. I’m wondering how it will impact the stock market.

A group of likeminded people in The Most Important Thing are talking about this.